Brazil's Supreme Court Verdict on Bolsonaro's Alleged Coup Attempt: Implications and Future Scenarios
Brazil's Supreme Court is set to announce the final two votes on former President Jair Bolsonaro's alleged coup attempt, which could result in his imprisonment and have significant implications for the country's political landscape. The current vote count stands at 2-1 in favor of a guilty verdict on all five charges against Bolsonaro, who is a close ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Justice Cármen Lúcia will be the next to vote, followed by Justice Cristiano Zanin.
Bolsonaro, aged 70, is accused of trying to unlawfully retain power after losing the 2022 election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The charges against him include attempting a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, trying to violently overthrow the democratic rule of law, as well as being linked to violence and posing a serious threat to the state's assets and heritage.
The trial, which began in 2023, has seen Justice Lúcia consistently aligning with the main judge, Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Zanin, who previously served as Lula's lawyer, has also mostly sided with de Moraes, except on issues related to the severity of penalties for other individuals involved in the coup plot. On the other hand, Justice Luiz Fux dissented from his colleagues' opinions, stating that there was insufficient evidence to convict Bolsonaro on any of the charges.
If Bolsonaro is found guilty, discussions on sentencing are expected to take place on Friday. This outcome could lead to increased pressure on him to designate a successor to challenge Lula in the upcoming elections. Additionally, a conviction may prompt Bolsonaro's allies in Congress to seek amnesty for him. In 2023, Brazil's electoral court banned Bolsonaro from running in elections until 2030 due to alleged abuse of power.
Fux had previously advocated for dismissing the case against Bolsonaro, arguing that it was beyond the court's jurisdiction. This position could benefit Bolsonaro in potential future appeals and help him gain support from his followers. Legal experts suggest that at least two dissenting votes are required in Bolsonaro's trial for him to appeal to the full 11-justice Supreme Court.